The lower than expected yield are of concern for many packers according to US Primex International Trading.
The USDA’s objective estimate of 630,000 tons on August 30th was 10% lower than the Subjective Estimate of 691,000 tons and down 6.5% from last year’s crop.
September shipment number is much lower due to the delayed harvest from 4 to 5 day to as much as 10 days, depending on area. With the exception of a few selected markets such as Spain, Italy, Turkey & Israel that are shipping the early varieties Hartley/Vina/Howard towards late Sept, most other markets are at zero September shipment, which is very unusual.
Depending on the area, Tulare are reportedly down by 25-30%, Howards are also down 20-25%. Hartley is down sharply in some areas. The Chandler crop now holds the fate of the 2019 crop supply. Again, at this time, we are hearing a mixed bag of receipt reports. The receipts vary depending on the growing area. Some packers have concern that the crop will at best come close to the estimate that appeared to be too low a month and half ago. We should have a clearer picture by the end of October when the bulk of Chandler crop is delivered to packers.